The world watches...
The World Economic Forum 2022 Global Risks Report didn’t emphasise geopolitical risks. But as the drama in Ukraine unfolds and we publish this edition of Airmic News, the outcome of the current conflict between Russia and the Ukraine remains uncertain.
It is clear that direct US or allied involvement in the conflict is not an option. But the NATO alliance, declared 'brain dead' not so long ago, has now kicked back into life. Created in 1949, it provided physical and political security to Europe and facilitated the economic and political unity of the European Union in 1963.
The current scenario also brings to the surface the dependencies and geopolitical risks of energy assets and their delivery, wider supply chain fragilities, cyber security risks and of course, risks to people.
Perhaps most shocking is that many thought any future conflict of this size would be fought from space, not at close proximity on the ground through street-by-street battle.
It is hard to predict how this crisis will unfold, but we can say with certainty that deeper geopolitical tensions between east and west will persevere for a long time.
Applying limitations to Russia’s use of SWIFT, a key part of the global payments system, is the equivalent of an economic nuclear strike, along with sanctions on the Russian central bank which has caused the Russian ruble to plummet in value. The risks of miscalculation by Russia in response is unknown.
Keeping informed and running scenarios are key – Airmic has a number of fantastic partners who have expertise in this space and they are waiting to help you.