Russia’s invasion has materially altered the near-term outlook for the UK and global economies and increased uncertainty over the path ahead. This article summarises early analysis on the impact on the UK economy via four main channels: energy (and other commodities), trade, financial links and confidence. It concludes with a brief discussion of the possible implications for UK inflation, growth and the outlook for interest rates.

Lloyd’s of London could be facing a “sizeable” loss from its $2bn share of the political risk insurance market during the ongoing Russian and Ukraine war. Exposure to eastern Europe is likely to be ‘modest’ but classes such as energy could take a beating.

[Free to access upon setting up an account] It feels appropriate, a couple of months after the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, to pause and consider whether the world is more, or less, secure from terrorism than in the latter part of the previous century. We inhabit a world where traditional terrorist threats, which tended to be localised and focused on the destruction of property and killing servicemen, policemen and public figures, feel somewhat primitive. Our new world is populated by Jihadis and extremists who buy ‘one-way tickets’ on route to martyrdom and mass casualty events.

The telecoms and technology sector has weathered the coronavirus pandemic better than many others, despite supply-side disruption. Looking ahead, business and investor attention will be focused on the 5G rollout, semiconductor shortages and widespread changes to cyber security regulations.