This EIU report expects the global economy to contract by 2.5% in 2020 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic – a much deeper global recession than that experienced during the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, a modest rebound in global output in the second half of this year is possible, provided the spread of coronavirus is contained globally.

This article from the McKinsey Global Institute, which finds an overlap between the workers who are vulnerable in the current downturn and those who hold jobs vulnerable to automation, calls for the US response to incorporate a longer-term view about the resulting occupational shifts and the development of skills.

The Ukraine crisis presents a myriad of risks to the sector – direct underwriting losses, rapidly rising prices, slower economic growth, financial market volatility and the potential for asset shocks – that are not altogether different to what occurred during COVID-19 and the financial crisis. But with direct investment and underwriting exposures limited overall, and with second order effects in financial markets currently manageable, the sector is strongly positioned to support clients through this period of uncertainty.

In addition to the more in-depth Global Risks Perception Survey, a critical foundation of the Global Risks Report, data presented here is from a single question in the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey. 12,361 executives from 124 countries around the world were asked to give their opinions on the top critical short-term threats to their country, out of a total list of 35 risks.