Middle East: ceasefire is opportunity for organisations to invest in resilience and crisis planning

As the conflict enters its third month, the rolling US-Iran ceasefire has been extended, but fundamental disagreements remain unresolved and the prospect of further volatility remains high.

“The current phase of the Middle East conflict is marked by uncertainty and volatile containment rather than resolution,” observes Polina Vynogradova, International SOS’s lead security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa.

If diplomatic deadlock continues and Iran refuses US demands, she warns that “the US, likely with Israel, may reapply military pressure and trigger Iranian retaliation, causing a new cycle of escalation.”

For businesses, the current impasse and the possibility of escalation complicate medium- and long-term planning. Vynogradova says businesses should use the ceasefire to bolster resilience and crisis planning:

“Plan on the assumption that volatility can return quickly, even during periods of apparent calm. De-escalation should be treated as a window for strengthening readiness, not evidence of lasting stability,” she says.

This means stress testing crisis and evacuation plans, defining escalation thresholds, validating travel and medical contingencies, and ensuring access to timely intelligence, she adds.

Should employees return to the Middle East?

With regional airspace largely reopened, though still operating at reduced capacity and limited routing, businesses are deciding when to return staff – a decision that must balance business continuity and duty of care.

Companies should take a phased, risk-based approach, advises Jessica Trichias, lead security analyst for the Levant, Maghreb and Sahel region at International SOS.

First, organisations should assess the stability of the security environment, not just current threat levels. Scenario planning and monitoring escalation triggers are critical.

Second, companies should revisit evacuation and crisis plans to confirm they remain realistic, including timelines, multiple exit options, and access to consular and private evacuation support.

Third, local infrastructure and health resilience must be evaluated, including access to emergency medical care, specialist treatment, medications and mental health support to meet duty of care standards.

Finally, she adds, leadership should consider workforce readiness and consent. Clear risk communication, voluntary return policies and support mechanisms help maintain trust and morale.

Decisions on travel and workforce return should remain flexible and reversible, she adds: “In the current environment, the ability to act early and decisively if conditions deteriorate is more valuable than trying to predict whether calm will hold.”

Health implications: from insurance to mental health

The crisis has exposed gaps in healthcare insurance plans, as many local policies exclude war, state violence and terrorism-related incidents, says Ryan Copeland, International SOS’s regional medical director, EMEA.

Companies should audit policies and close gaps, he advises. Options include supplementary International Medical Insurance, political violence/terrorism cover, and enhanced emergency evacuation or crisis medical response support.

He also warns of challenges when evacuation is requested due to security concerns rather than medical necessity, including pre-emptive evacuation of pregnancy cases or patients needing specialist care.

Businesses should also address the psychological impact of the war. International SOS has observed increased mental health concerns as a direct result of the crisis, creating both duty-of-care and operational risks, comments Copeland.

“This affects businesses in a range of ways, from visible risks such as sickness absence to less obvious impacts on resilience, including presenteeism, performance, interpersonal conflict, concentration and decision making,” he says.

To prevent chronic stress and anxiety becoming an operational risk, Copeland recommends taking a holistic view of employee health and implementing targeted mitigation and support plans to support well-being.

Monitoring escalation triggers

With the ceasefire precarious, businesses must closely monitor developments linked to US-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz.

Key escalation signals, according to Vynogradova, include collapse of talks, greater involvement of additional actors such as the Houthis, short-notice airspace or border closures, states of emergency, or attacks on US, Iranian or Israeli nationals or businesses. Further risks include increased tensions in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea attacks, where miscalculation risk remains high.

While the outlook is uncertain, the business impact will be far reaching.

In the medium term, higher fuel costs, logistical disruption and increased security risks will persist. In the long term, firms may seek to diversify supply chains and energy sources and invest more in resilience and contingency planning, observes Trichias.

Ultimately, while the ceasefire offers a temporary window of stability, the underlying risks in the region remain unresolved. Businesses are therefore advised to treat this period as an opportunity to strengthen preparedness, rather than a signal of lasting calm, ensuring plans remain flexible, responsive and ready to adapt to rapid changes in the security environment.