The political system risks losing its legitimacy, says Gamble

Andrew Gamble, academic and author, gave a fascinating insight into one of the closest general elections in recent times, at a one-off "election-special" Airmic lecture. The professor of politics at Cambridge University, and brother of David Gamble, principal of the Airmic Academy,  shed light on both the possible outcomes of the election as well as the longer-term implications for the political landscape in Britain.

Among a wide range of observations, Gamble noted that the British party system is shifting from two-party politics to multi-party politics, illustrated by the fact that the two main parties shared 90% of the vote in 1950, falling to 65% in 2010 and likely to be lower still this year.

One of the big implications of this, he said, was an erosion of legitimacy of the ruling class, as parties attempt to govern with an increasingly small percentage of the national vote. This is likely, he said, to reignite calls for a system of proportional representation.

The SNP is the game changer that "no-one saw coming", Gamble commented, and the West Lothian question is likely to be a recurring issue through the next parliament. What’s more, the SNP’s influence in the coming parliament could act as a “centrifugal force” in accelerating the political break-up of the United Kingdom.

Of the election itself, even once the votes are in and counted the outcome could still be uncertain, he said. A hung parliament is almost a certainty, but the two main parties may struggle to form a coalition leading to the chance of successive weak minority governments.

But of one thing we can be certain, Gamble commented by way of closure: "Like a lot of things about this election, many things remain a mystery."

Andrew Gamble